Start of the 50 PLUS lecture series at the Ludwigshafen University of Business and Society

On November 14, 2019, Prof. Dr. Jörg B. Kühnapfel hosted his 50 PLUS lecture at 5 p.m. in the university auditorium.

The topic was "The power of prediction - smarter living through better forecasts".

Kühnapfel wanted to explain to the 80 or so guests how to make sensible decisions. Decisions are always based on forecasts. And - once you have made your decision - other options fall out.

Then the question to the guests: Who has a lucky charm?
But - does it really bring luck? Or does it just make you feel safer or better? Many people also think that lucky charms should/could influence the future.......
However, there is one thing you should know: The future is uncertain!

Or is there a certain future? And: What factors stand for a secure future and security?

• Regulations
• Influencing factors
• Information asymmetry
• Decision motives

Well,

• the decision motive always depends on what the other person does (think of a game of chess, for example);
• with information asymmetry, we know the regulations, these are clearly defined - but we do not know the decision of the other person;
• in the case of influencing factors, we do not know what is clear and what is not and
• when it comes to regulations, think of health, for example: this can be uncertain. You can try to live a healthy life - but that alone does not provide security.

Another example is the weather, which cannot be influenced.
This is a coincidence or is based on the laws of nature. You could just as well say that nature does not decide - it is simply there.

Everything we know about the future is a probability calculation. Forecasting and decision-making are like a seesaw with a certain amount of risk - and these cannot always be calculated.

How can we make the future more certain?

• According to Kühnapfel, you could, for example, live as a hermit. This is often the case with older people. They isolate themselves and thus feel they are in a "safe haven".
• Stagnation: means avoiding development. Then everything stays as it is.
• Long-term contracts - here you know that you have to stick to them. In this respect, you have a secure goal in mind.
• Or you can react like a snail: take small steps - this does not bring radical changes and you can do less wrong.

Prof. Kühnapfel's presentation was entertaining and interesting and was followed by an interim conclusion, which made the following points:

1. Every future is uncertain.
2. Every future has a certain probability of occurrence.
3. We - and only we - decide to shape our future.
4. In order to decide, we have to make forecasts.
5. Good forecasts lead to good decisions and therefore a good future.

Selected forecasts can also be found in the book "The power of prediction", which lists a number of forecasts, as shown in the diagram (right).

After further explanations, a second (interim) conclusion followed at the end of the presentation:

• Stay humble and maintain a sense of awe for the future.
• Always expect that you will talk yourself into something.
• Seek advice from friends and acquaintances when it comes to your future.
• If it is an important decision, take your time.

Kühnapfel then ends, after almost 90 minutes, with the words
"Believing is not knowing!
Not even if everyone says so!"
and was then available for a good half hour for the discussion round, which was also actively used.

Many thanks at this point to Prof. Dr. Jörg B. Kühnapfel from the Marketing & Human Resources Management Department for his support of the lecture series "Lifelong Learning: 50 PLUS".

We would like to draw your attention to the lecture on 28.11.2019 at 5 p.m., also in the auditorium. Topic: "Fun and money - they go together......." - We are pleased to welcome Prof. Dr. Hartmut Walz as a speaker.